of the problems you will encounter are, number of runners, ground
conditions, round or straight course, position of stalls and left-hand
or right-hand course.
I will start with the number of runners in a given race. At first glance
this seems a simple enough process, just see how may have won from a low
draw compared to a high stall position. But as with all things in life,
itâ€™s not quite as simple as that and I will explain why.
Letâ€™s assume there are ten races to be run on the straight course which
is perfectly flat and with no draw advantage what so ever. In each of
these races there are five runners and each stall takes its turn and
wins a race. At the end of the day each stall will have won two races
each and have a twenty percent strike rate.
The next day they run the same ten races, only this time, there are ten
runners per race and again each stall wins it share of races. So today
each stall has managed one win from ten and now has a ten percent strike
rate. If we now get a ten horse race on the third day of racing the
stats will show that stalls one to five have a 15% strike rate.
This is an average of the first two days racing which were 20% and 10%
and stalls six to ten will show a 10% strike rate. This again is an
average of the first two days racing but as there were no horses
occupying stalls six to ten on the first day it is shown as 10%.
So despite the fact that all stalls have won in turn the low draw is
shown as having a 15% strike rate and the high draw is exposed as having
only a 10% chance. When in reality both high and low drawn horses would
have the same chance of winning.
Given this situation it would make sense to back one of the high drawn
horses as the general public would over bet a horse with a low stall
position and hence push out the prices of the higher drawn horses.
Harry Beau (GB)
Head to head results show that the David Evans stable runners will out do those from the Milton Bradley yard on 77% of occasions.