Jadwiz Horse Racing Form

Jadwiz Newsletter - October 2012

2nd Top Rated With Jockey Ratings (Jump Racing)

With the flat season coming to an end it's about time we started to think of ways that we could profit from jump racing and one of the most important things is the ability to do just that.

This applies to both horse and jockey which got me thinking that the best place to start could very well be by using the jockey ratings, after all these show which runner is top rated based on what a jockey has achieved.

So what races are we going to use? Well I thought that if we are looking at a jockeys capability then chase races would be an ideal place in which to start, so with the analyse software started I selected top rated with the jockey ratings.

Next thing was to check 'Chase' in the race type area, then we have a choice of whether to include all races, handicaps or non-handicaps, there may be more profit with non-handicap races but I had to start somewhere so opted for handicap races.

With handicap races we can often get better prices, strike rate tends to suffer a bit and may not be for everyone, results that came back where not very good but did have a 17% strike rate which for handicaps is not to bad.

So instead of using the top rated I selected to analyse with the 2nd top in the jockey ratings and the reason for this is that then can get over looked in favour of the top rated.

The results this time showed that there was only about a four percent loss but by using Betfair it does look possible to make a profit, so we now need to find a way that we can improve on what we now know.

So we know that with jump racing a jockeys experience and ability to jump a fence is much more important than on the flat, even more so with the big fences as apposed to hurdles so would seems a logical idea to only use non-claiming jockeys.

This increased the strike rate and the loss was less than two percent betting at sp, so by using the betting exchanges a profit does now look to be on the cards.

You could if you so wished take this a stage further and only back the runner if it starts as favourite, by doing this the system returned a one percent profit at sp, although the number of bets you would have did drop significantly.

Another way is to make use of the profile ratings, as I said earlier we are using the 2nd top rated jockey so why not only use runners where a jockey has a above average profile rating for chase races.

This idea returned very good results but only if we use 'Above Average' and not excellent, most likely reason for this I feel is we are not using the very best jockey so why use the very best profile rating.

By using this method over the last 12 months the results were as follows;

Runs = 400
Wins = 84
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit = £22
Betfair Profit = £53 (assuming 15% over sp) 

For those of you that would like to follow this there are two way in with it can be done, first would be to watch the video (top right of newsletter) and then use the analyse software to import and find the days runners.

The other method is to use the online form guide, first check if it is a handicap chase which the race title will tell you and then sort the column marked _J_ this may require two clicks to sort it from high to low, you want the second on the list.

2nd Top Rated Jockey

Once you have done this click the horse name and scroll down the page and look for the profile ratings as shown in the image below, the jockey must have a rating of four.

Horse Racing Profile Ratings

  

 

 

Todays Form

KEMPTON (A.W) 7-45
Innstigator is a 3yo from the Ralph J Smith stable who has some unproductive form and does not look to be up to this 7f race which taking part here at Kempto
...read more

 

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