Jadwiz Newsletter - October 2012
2nd Top Rated With Jockey Ratings (Jump Racing)
With the flat season coming to an
end it's about time we started to think of ways that
we could profit from jump racing and one of the most
important things is the ability to do just that.
This applies to both horse and
jockey which got me thinking that the best place to
start could very well be by using the jockey
ratings, after all these show which runner is top
rated based on what a jockey has achieved.
So what races are we going to use?
Well I thought that if we are looking at a jockeys
capability then chase races would be an ideal place
in which to start, so with the analyse software
started I selected top rated with the jockey
Next thing was to check 'Chase' in
the race type area, then we have a choice of
whether to include all races, handicaps or
non-handicaps, there may be more profit with
non-handicap races but I had to start somewhere so
opted for handicap races.
With handicap races we can often
get better prices, strike rate tends to suffer a bit
and may not be for everyone, results that came back where
not very good but did have a 17% strike rate which
for handicaps is not to bad.
So instead of using the top rated
I selected to analyse with the 2nd top in the jockey
ratings and the reason for this is that then can get
over looked in favour of the top rated.
The results this time showed that
there was only about a four percent loss but by
using Betfair it does look possible to make a
profit, so we now need to find a way that we can
improve on what we now know.
So we know that with jump racing a jockeys
experience and ability to jump a fence is much more
important than on the flat, even more so with the
big fences as apposed to hurdles so would seems a
logical idea to
only use non-claiming jockeys.
This increased the strike rate and
the loss was less than two percent betting at sp, so
by using the betting exchanges a profit does now
look to be on the cards.
You could if you so wished take
this a stage further and only back the runner if it
starts as favourite, by doing this the system
returned a one percent profit at sp, although the
number of bets you would have did drop
Another way is to make use of the
profile ratings, as I said earlier we are using the
2nd top rated jockey so why not only use runners
where a jockey has a above average profile rating
for chase races.
This idea returned very good
results but only if we use 'Above Average' and not
excellent, most likely reason for this I feel is we
are not using the very best jockey so why use the
very best profile rating.
By using this method over the last
12 months the results were as follows;
Runs = 400
Wins = 84
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit = £22
Betfair Profit = £53 (assuming 15% over sp)
For those of you that would like
to follow this there are two way in with it can be
done, first would be to watch the video (top
right of newsletter) and
then use the analyse software to import and find the days
The other method is to use the online
form guide, first check if it is a handicap
chase which the race title will tell you and then
sort the column marked _J_ this may require two
clicks to sort it from high to low, you want the
second on the list.
Once you have done this click the
horse name and scroll down the page and look for the
profile ratings as shown in the image below, the
jockey must have a rating of four.